The title above is inspired by the book "The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable" by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Put simply, those "black swans" are improbable (or, more precisely, unexpected) events with huge impact. They change directions in human activities such as economy and science. Bell curves (such as Gaussian) and statistics are suited for stable circumstances and theory of measurement. Huge societal changes happen on margins of a bell curve, where rarely anyone (experts included) sees them as they emerge.
Since this meshwork is dealing with the "blackest" swans of all (such as climate change and renewable energy - expected, but hard to grasp from past experiences), this whole concept deserves to be observed here more closely.
black swan, nassim nicholas taleb
Last updated 512 days ago by Aleksandar Malečić
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David Beatty
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Yeah.. I agree. There are some Massive Black Swans on the March. The book Nudge by Thaler and Sustein also outlines some reasons why we ignore them. db
David Beatty 512 days ago